Theaterization

India is becoming a key player in Southeast Asia, maintaining strong diplomatic ties with the USA, UK, Russia, Japan, Germany, the EU, Australia & Israel. But things get a bit complicated with its neighbours. With two nuclear powers on its borders—one with a struggling economy and the other a major U.S rival. India has fought four wars with Pakistan (1947, 1965, 1971, 1999).For years, India has prepared for a two-front war. In the 1965 Indo-Pak war, India ensured enough troops on the Chinese border. In 1971, it used the Himalayas to delay its entry into the war until winter, preventing Chinese interference.

But are we ready for a 2.5-front war? What is the .5 front, and how do we address it? In June 2017, General Bipin Rawat coined the term "2.5-front war," with the .5 referring to internal Problems inside India. We saw a similar dynamic with Israel, where Hamas, backed by Iran, launched 5,000 missiles. Likewise, Pakistan supports separatist militants in Kashmir and Khalistani groups in Punjab. China, meanwhile, backs tribal militant groups like ULFA-I, KNA, GNLA, and ATTF, and has aided the Naxalite movement in central India.

Plus, Pakistan is closely aligned with China, and gave the Shaksgam Valley to them, and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) passes through POK and Pakistan. China also strengthens Pakistan’s military with aircraft like the JF-17 , Chengdu J-20 and submarines. If a 2.5-front war happens, involving both China and Pakistan, is our military ready for such a conflict? Military experts suggest India should adopt an offensive strategy on the Pakistani front in case of war or if any conflict arises because India has won all four past conflicts with Pakistan and is more experienced there. On the Chinese front, however, India should remain defensive to prevent territorial losses. Mobilizing troops between the two borders would be challenging due to the vast distance. For internal conflicts, paramilitary forces and state police should be deployed.

The Indian Army, with 1.2 million soldiers in 32 divisions and 14 corps, is formidable for one front but would need 43 divisions to handle a two-front war. India also needs at least 60 days' worth of ammunition but currently has only 10 days' supply. The Indian Air Force currently operates 31 squadrons but needs at least 60 to manage both fronts. However, after retiring its MiG-21 and Mirage 2000 squadrons, this number will drop to 30. To boost its depleting strength, the IAF plans to add nine squadrons by 2025-26, including 136 Rafales, 21 MiG-29s, 18 Su-30MKIs, 24 LCA Mk.1, and 83 LCA Mk.1A. The Ambala-based 'Golden Arrows' squadron has been reactivated to induct the first four Rafale fighters, expected to arrive in India by October. Projects like Tejas and AMCA need to be fast-tracked to meet future demands. India holds an advantage in the Indian Ocean with its two aircraft carriers, INS Vikrant and INS Vikramaditya, and 18 submarines. The navy can dominate Pakistan through a naval blockade, though China may use its Gwadar base 1 2 India has a counter in its Chabahar base, just 72 km away, and can use its Nicobar base to block the Chinese navy from the Strait of Malacca. India lags behind China in AI, drones, and cyber warfare, and the armed forces need modernization.

However, the defense budget is constrained, with much spent on pensions and foreign procurement. For the internal ".5th front," intelligence agencies (IB, RAW, CBI, NIA), along with paramilitary and local police, must address internal threats peacefully and through political solutions where possible. Nuclear weapons should be a last resort, used only in an existential threat. If war becomes inevitable, experts suggest India should strike first to push its enemies back India has seen significant changes over the past decade, moving from a corruption-plagued government to one focused on national development. Though the defense budget remains tight, it has grown in recent years, with reforms improving financial management in the Army.While military improvements are needed.